Make the read. Act on it?

ESPN, having nothing better to show me this evening, reran a marathon of their 2003 WSOP Main Event episodes. I saw that hand again, the one where Moneymaker played his hand very aggressively and pushed Farha off of a pair of nines with a big bet on the river. It was heads-up for the championship and Moneymaker bet enough to put Farha all-in on the river.

"Missed your flush draw, did you?"

Actually, Sammy, he missed his flush, gutshot, and overcard draws. You had flopped top pair with a queen kicker, and were looking at a board of low cards with three spades on it. That nagging voice, that tingling in your gut, whispered that you had the best hand. And that voice never shouts, it always whispers.

But you folded, wanting to play for your tournament life when you were more certain, when you had a stronger hand. After all, you were up against a rank amateur, internet dead money. You had chips, and you had time.

I'm writing this post not to criticize Sam Farha, but to draw a parallel to my own experience. (Let's forget for a minute that Farha was playing for millions on poker's biggest stage, and I play for dozens of dollars in an apartment. I always attempt to forget the stakes and just Play Good Poker.)

My Sunday tourney was a fun one. We had 14 players, more than we've ever had. With everyone having Monday as a holiday (except me.... *grumble*), we had a great turnout. $270 prize pool, and we paid top 4.

I made the final table with a small but not desperate stack. Nine-handed, I raised from the cutoff with AJ-diamonds. Kida, who was sitting on at least twice the chips I was, called from one of the blinds. He bet the pot into me, when the flop showed up as a 9-8-4 rainbow, no diamonds. Something about his actions was off. I couldn't put my finger on anything specific, but I had a hunch he was making a play. If I wanted to raise him, it would cost me all of my chips.

Like Farha, I couldn't pull the trigger. I didn't have many chips, but I wasn't desperate and I resigned myself to play for all of my chips with a stronger hand. As I folded, I remarked, "I think Kida's bluffing, but I don't have the chips or the heart to put him to the test right now." That got a couple of chuckles from the participants and onlookers.

Neither one of us made the money that night.

Hanging out with Kida and Tabletalk Tommy the following evening (July 4th), Kida brought up that particular hand to tell me that I was right - he had nothing, no pair, no ace. Maybe he was trying to get his digs in, but I didn't mind... I'm pleased that my read was right.

That evening, Tommy had to drive back home to San Luis Obispo (a 4+ hour drive?), but first, he wanted to play a $5 freezeout with me and Kida. Tommy's a motivated guy... apparently he hasn't found a regular game in SLO, and he was the winner of the Sunday night tourney. (He was in for $25 and out for $108.)

So we're three-handed, and Kida calls a raise of mine. After more checking than betting, he put a pot-sized bet into me on the river. The board wasn't that coordinated. The blinds were high enough that the chips were getting a little tight, and I'm the shorty.

I noticed that he was staring at me, and wouldn't look away when I matched his gaze. He seemed bold, defiant. What's that, Mister Caro? Strong means weak? "Call. Pair of fives, ace kicker." Kida insta-mucks, and my hand is good.

Later on, he made another river bet in a similar situation. Attempting to meet his gaze again, he was looking down at his cards and chips. This time I folded my small pair (sevens, nine kicker?). Perhaps he was bluffing again, but I figured he had checked when he made his flush on the turn... and I believe he's never read a poker book, let alone Caro's book of poker tells. Really, Albert is the only regular at my game who I consider able to throw a false-tell at me. Kida did look a little disappointed after I folded that hand.

~~

In the Sunday tourney, I was a shortstack with seven players left, but there were a few other shorties out there - Dave S, Tim and Carlos were within 1K of my stack. Tabletalk Tommy, Albert, and Shawn ran the show.

As it was folded around to me, I had a lightbulb moment: now was a perfect time to steal. With Tommy in the small blind and Dave S in the big, I could push all-in with impunity. Tommy, while normally a loose player, tends to give my all-ins a little more respect, and Dave barely had me covered. Dave would have to have a big hand to call me. With the blinds at 400/800, I pushed for 4K.

Tommy was the monkeywrench. Instead of mucking immediately as I expected, he started hemming and hawing. "Man, I'm sorry, I gotta call." Dave folded, and Tommy showed me his pocket jacks. Oops, nice timing.

The poker gods have a sense of humor. Dealing my own fate, the first card I turned off the deck was a ten. That pleasant feeling in my bloodstream wasn't ethanol, but a glimmer of hope. Squelched horribly when the third card was a jack, making Tommy a nearly invincible set.

The ethanol followed right after. Hey, it's my tourney, and it's the 4th of July weekend. Drinking Sam Adams makes me patriotic, right? Right?

~~

In the Fourth of July Freezeout (which is a misnomer.. we let Tommy rebuy when he busted out in the first five minutes)...

After Tommy busted Kida with quad fives (ouch!), we got into heads-up play with Tommy enjoying a 2:1 chip advantage. I think I pulled ahead on one steal and two quality hands. I'd have middle pair, commit myself, and he couldn't fold bottom pair. I'd have top pair, he couldn't fold middle pair.

I had a comfortable lead when we saw an unraised flop of 6-5-4 rainbow. My 86 suited gave me top pair and a gutshot. Tommy called my bet to see a 9 on the turn. Tommy pushed, and I went into the tank. I can't put him on the 87 nuts... why bet into me?

Plenty of hands out there that I'm beating right now, and if I'm not in the lead, I should have outs. If I'm behind, I'm probably drawing to an 8, 7, or 6. And if I lose, I've got 3K to Tommy's 9K with the blinds at 300/600. It's close to a fold, but I decide to call.

Crap, Tommy's got 93-sooted. He flopped the open-ender, and turned an overpair to my pair of sixes. But the river six gave me a set for the win.

Sunday, in for $15, out for $0.
Monday, in for $5, out for $20.